US Covid Weekly Status (11/14)

The short summary is the situation is that cases continue to rise – only 15 states saw a drop in cases last week. The Midwest looks to be the new hot spot while things get a little worse in the Northeast. One new entry in the top ten which continues to be dominated by the South.

• Connecticut (15) – continues to have the smallest number of cases in the region but did see an increase last week which hurts the rating.
• New Jersey (20) – Also a low number of cases but they have been inching up over the last few weeks.
• Maine (29) – Cases have been relatively flat for several weeks and were actually down last week so they see a slight improvement in their rating.
• Massachusetts (33) – More cases than the bottom two and a bigger increase last week.
• New York (34) – Similar to Massachusetts but did see a big jump in cases last week.
• Pennsylvania (36) – Not as big of an increase as New York but more cases.
• Rhode Island (38) – Big jump last week – only one other state saw a bigger increase. Combine that with a relatively high number of cases and you get this rating.
• Vermont (44) – Increase may be slowing but still saw cases rise and has a high number to begin with.
• New Hampshire (45) – Smaller increase than Vermont (maybe approaching a top) but one of the highest number of cases in the country. (Again per million people)

• DC (11) – did see a small increase last week but has a low number of cases so they still look good.
• North Carolina (12) – Hit a higher peak than any other state in this region and now appears to have reached a bottom as they saw a small increase last week but cases remain low.
• Virginia (13) – The story is basically the same for the first four states on the list which is why they rank so close together. Combination of a low number of cases with just a small increase from last week.
• Maryland (17) – Forgot to mention that I also look at change over the month to get a more long term picture and all of the states here are still down from where they were a month ago.
• Delaware (27) – More cases than any other state in this region and the biggest jump in cases over the week. Just barely in the bottom half so this region is still in good shape.

• Illinois (37) – Similar story for all states in this region. All were up for the week and are over where they were a month ago as well. And they have relatively high numbers of cases. Illinois is the best of the bunch.
• Ohio (40) – About the same as Illinois in terms of case increase but they have more cases.
• Michigan (41) – Didn’t see as big of a jump as the other states in this region but they have the highest number of cases.
• Wisconsin (46) – Pushing Michigan for highest number of cases.
• Indiana (47) – Largest week over week change in the country last week.

• Tennessee (18) – Saw a relatively big increase last week which may show that they hit a bottom and are now going to see cases go up. Can’t react too strongly to a single week just yet.
• Kentucky (19) – Similar story to Tennessee. Smaller increase but more cases leads to them ranking just behind.
• West Virginia (26) – Also saw a very slight increase in cases. Could be all three states hit a bottom with West Virginia failing to fall as much as the other two. The higher case numbers leads to them being ranked worse than the other two.

• Florida (1)
• Georgia (3)
• Alabama (5)
• Mississippi (6)
• South Carolina (8)

Not much to say as all continued to see cases fall from last week. I mentioned that only 15 states saw a decrease and five of them are here. Couple that with low numbers of cases and you still have the best region in the country right here.

• South Dakota (30) – Saw a small drop in cases from last week and is at the bottom of the region so they rank first here.
• North Dakota (32) – Also saw a small drop in cases. Last year, this part of the country did peak in mid November but they got a later start this year so I’m not about to call a peak just yet.
• Iowa (39) – fewer cases than North Dakota but saw them go up last week.
• Nebraska (49) – Big jump in cases which put them third in the region and among the highest in the country.
• Minnesota (51) – By my measure, the worst state in the country. Currently has the highest number of cases per million and saw a huge jump last week. Also broke out of the range they’ve been in. Not the place to be right now.

• Louisiana (2) – only state in the region that saw a drop form last week and has one of the lowest number of cases per million in the country.
• Texas (9) – up from last week but still down from four weeks ago and a low number of cases.
• Oklahoma (21) – similar to Arkansas – saw bigger increases last week but still have a relatively low number of cases.
• Arkansas (22) – see above
• Missouri (31) – bigger increase than the states above and more cases.
• Kansas (42) – biggest weekly increase and highest number of cases in this region.

We do see kind of the north/south dynamic here. Ranked in terms of weekly change you’d get Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas.

• Idaho (4) – shock entry in the top 10. Still has a higher number of cases than the South but saw the biggest decrease over the week and also the biggest decrease over the month. Given the pattern, this doesn’t look like a single week thing. It is possible they’ve hit a peak.
• Montana (24) – Also saw cases drop last week. Interesting that it follows Idaho and the Dakotas as some of the few states outside the South where cases dropped last week. Still has a large number of cases despite the drop.
• Wyoming (28) – Also saw a drop last week but not as big as either Idaho or Montana and cases remain high.
• Utah (35) – Small increase in cases last week so they rank behind the places that saw cases drop.
• Colorado (43) – Just behind Wyoming in cases and they continue to go up so you get this rating.
• New Mexico (50) – Another place with a big jump in cases and they now have the most in this region after ranking at the bottom a few weeks ago.

Had kind of a reversal here. The three northern states had been far above the three southern states but now things are improving in the north and increasing in the southern part of the region.

• Hawaii (7) – low number of cases. A small increase but the general trend still seems down.
• Nevada (16) – They get points for a big decrease in cases which may or may not be real since we saw a big jump the previous week.
• California (25) – Relatively low number of cases and a modest increase last week. But the trend has been a slow and steady increase over the month so they don’t rank higher.
• Arizona (48) – Cases accelerate last week and are now at high levels so you rank near the bottom.

• Alaska (10) – My method of combining the scales isn’t a simple average so it will give extra weight if you rank low in one of the scales. Alaska still has one of the highest number of cases in the country but cases have been rapidly falling for over a month. That’s why they sneak into the top 10.
• Oregon (14) – Ranks slightly better than Washington in terms of cases and did see a decrease last week while Washington saw a slight increase.
• Washington (23) – The trend is still going the right way in Washington. Cases just aren’t falling as fast as they are in Oregon.

Overall, the best area is from South Carolina to Louisiana where cases continue to fall and they are at very low levels already. There is improvement in the Pacific Northwest and potentially in the Northern Rockies through the Dakotas. Things got worse in the Midwest and four corners (Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona). The Northeast did see things get a little worse. The mid Atlantic and border states (along wiht Tennessee) were basically stable.

Next week’s post will cover this week. I expect disruptions over Thanksgiving again so we should expect some odd results for a few weeks. Of real interest is whether we have hit peaks in places like Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas.