This is going to be a quick post. I’m getting ready to update my US numbers where I expect the downward trends to continue. So I’ll do a deeper dive on those numbers probably tomorrow. I’ve mentioned before that I’ve also been gathering data from the WHO site and I had noticed a slow down in many of the countries with a high number of cases.
The graph below illustrates this. The blue circles are actual number of cases on each day and the orange circles are a ten day moving average which smooths out the big swings in the data. There are a few countries (Spain, Israel are examples) that will have several days with 0 reported cases and then have a day with a very large number which causes some of the spikes you see.
We did get a false dip at the end of the year because of reporting gaps over Christmas and New Years. All of that has should have been cleaned out by now and the ten day average peaked on January 16th. There is going to be a strong correlation between these numbers and the US numbers since the US makes up about 30 percent of the total. But, as I mentioned, most of the countries that were seeing sharp increases have had cases starting to drop the last two weeks.
It would be nice to think that January 16th represents the top of the COVID surge and it is all downhill from here. With the vaccine, that could be true. There is always the worry of those other strains which may or may not be problematic. For now, cases are going in the right direction. I’ll take my good news when I can get it.