Omicron New Year

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Well I thought I wasn’t going to another post this year but the numbers are interesting and worth discussing.

For the week ending on December 26th, there were 1,549,859 newly reported cases which is the highest weekly total since the first week in January of this year when we had 1,723,433 newly reported cases. It does go down as the second highest weekly total for the US since this whole thing started. Given the totals for the first two days of this week, I think we are going to shatter the all time record for cases this week and see another big increase.

This is what it looks like.

Just to give you a sneak preview, the numbers for Monday and Tuesday were both between 425,000 and 450,000 newly reported cases. In other words, the lines for next week won’t fit on the scale I’ve been using for this graph.

I won’t do the state graphs because the potential disruptions over Christmas mean that we might be seeing patterns that aren’t real. What I will do is just list them in order of the number of cases reported last week. Again, this is cases per million which adjusts for populations differences.

In order, from smallest to largest, we have:

  1. Montana
  2. Alaska
  3. Idaho
  4. Mississippi
  5. Wyoming
  6. Oregon
  7. South Carolina
  8. Washington
  9. Utah
  10. Nevada
  11. Louisiana
  12. California
  13. Arkansas
  14. South Dakota
  15. Alabama
  16. Nebraska
  17. Oklahoma
  18. Kansas
  19. Missouri
  20. Texas
  21. New Mexico
  22. Arizona
  23. West Virginia
  24. Indiana
  25. North Dakota
  26. Vermont
  27. Minnesota
  28. Michigan
  29. North Carolina
  30. Kentucky
  31. Colorado
  32. Iowa
  33. Tennessee
  34. Georgia
  35. Maine
  36. Virginia
  37. Wisconsin
  38. Pennsylvania
  39. New Hampshire
  40. Connecticut
  41. Hawaii
  42. Ohio
  43. Delaware
  44. Maryland
  45. Massachusetts
  46. Florida
  47. Illinois
  48. Rhode Island
  49. New York
  50. New Jersey
  51. DC

One interesting observation from where I live since I do a more detailed look at the numbers here. We had been slowly coming down from the second Delta wave which peaked in early December but we are now starting to see the Omicron wave take off. Right now, it is really limited to two regions. The one in the center of the state where I live and where we have the most people. And one in the northwest corner which borders a much larger city in a neighboring state. Just happen to be two of the places with the highest population density.

Now I should state that while the increases in cases are alarming, data from other places strongly suggest this is a very mild version of the virus. It is a little too early yet to say that here, but cases in the US started going almost exponential on December 15th but there is currently no sign of a significant increase in deaths. Deaths do lag but we should be starting to see signs.

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