Same Stuff Different Day

Yesterday, I decided to blast a Covid 19 website on my Facebook page. Basically, they had models showing expected cases in 7, 14 and 30 days along with the associated fatalities and hospital utilization. As you might expect, the 30 day data was especially grim and downright scary.

To me, the long term predictions were pure BS. They had taken the current doubling time and just projected it forward. Right now, the total number of cases is doubling about every 14 days. So, if you do the math, it doubles twice in the 30 day period. And that’s where you get the scary numbers.

But the doubling time is not constant and has been getting longer over time. To get to the scary figure, you’d have to see a rate of new cases about twice what we have now. And the new case per day has been stable for a week or so and has never been as high as you would need to get to their scary number. Basically, their projection was way out of line with the actual data and bad modelling offends me, so I did a mini rant on my Facebook page.

I’ve read a couple of other things by people talking about “never going back” and that do bother me a bit. I do think that the news media has done such a good job instilling fear in so many people that even when this breaks, there are going to be those who are ruled by their fear.

Now, knowing what know about the high risk groups, I’m not suggesting that we don’t continue to take some reasonable precautions. If you are in a high risk group then it makes some sense to minimize contact until we either have a reliable vaccine or we are at such a low level of new cases that the risk becomes minimal. But if you are young and healthy and feel you need to hide away for the rest of your life because of this, then you are going a bit too far (in my opinion).

Our local chapter of the Famous Franchise has set up a you tube channel so they no longer have to do Facebook live virtual groups. It also allows them to get the other instructors involved. They were asking for feedback but I’m going to let others answer that question because I’m mostly using the videos as a way of staying in touch with the studio. Still have not really found the right way to keep the dance skills active by using virtual lessons.

Part of my problem is that I start to second guess myself. Steps that I can do in my sleep can suddenly feel strange when I don’t have a partner to work with. Maybe I just rely too much on the muscle memory and how something is supposed to “feel” but that’s what works for me. Plus, (and this is kind of cheap excuse) but most of the patterns really move and I don’t have a nice open area to really work on them.

This is the longest I’ve gone without dancing since I started taking lessons all those years ago.

I did find a good fitness app except that my eyes are so bad I need my glasses to read and follow along. But it has allowed me to change up one thing. I just do more reps and fewer exercises each day. So some parts get some rest rather than trying to do everything every day.

It will be interesting when things open back up. I’d have no problem going back for dance lessons. I think we can sanitize enough of the risk away. Would I go back to the gym? I know the whole “no fear” thing and I felt comfortable doing it before everything shut down. Probably I would because I think I tend to use equipment that isn’t widely used. But if was super crowded, I’d have to rethink because I can do a lot of stuff at home.

Had to pick up a refill on Rocco’s anti inflammatory medicine. Poor guy – he really gets stiff and sore in his back legs but he still wants to go for his walks. I took him for a walk before we went to the vets since I was going to have to sit in the car anyway and then he got to say hi to the person who came out to hand me the medicine. He likes the people in the vets office and this was probably nice for him because he didn’t have to go in. I’m going to need to get to the pet store pretty soon. I’m trying to figure out if they’ll allow you into the store or if it is only shop online/pickup curbside. They are considered essential but I don’t know if that means they are open.

May see if I can pick up some flowers this weekend. Not quite past the last freeze date but I’d love to be able to spend some time outside. Well that’s all I’ve got.