The Days all Run Together

I guess today in Monday. Since I’m not working and nothing is open, the actual day of the week doesn’t really seem to matter anymore.

Got a call from Z just to inform me that, no, the studio was not going to open this week since we’ve had our “stay at home and hide” order extended for another two weeks. I knew this but I guess some people had been confused so she’s reaching out to everyone. Also got an email on the same subject. She did use the opportunity to mention the on line group classes which I did know about but maybe others will now take advantage of them.

Rocco’s cough was a little better today so I’m still waiting on calling the vet. We did take him for a walk and he didn’t show any signs of lethargy or straining to breath which I’d expect if this were a serious thing. At his age, the walk wore him out so he’s been sleeping for the last couple of hours which isn’t a bad thing.

I think I’ve decided to go ahead and do some kind of work out every week day. Maybe also on weekends – we’ll see. I think I’ll do the full one on Monday, Wednesday and Friday and then just do a limited one on the other days. I mean I can always do the calf raises and the leg exercises just to keep the leg strength up for when dancing does return.

I’m still involved in this weekly challenge that the guy who runs the gym at the place where I used to work started. I was finding that on the off days, I wasn’t getting in a lot of steps so I’m think I need to find a way to be more active. Got to listen to my little master telling me to get up and move.

I started a new book yesterday and almost got through half of it last night. Since I’ve decided to stay off the internet (including social media) after a certain hour, reading gives me something to do. And I’ve polished off three books since this whole thing started.

So that’s how I’m coping. Hope you are finding things to keep your mind and body active as well. I do find that a benefit of the workouts is that it is hard to think about all the strange and bizarre stuff going on.

I wanted to briefly touch on some of the numbers and models that I have been playing with. I built models for 20 countries where I had data back to March 16th. I’ve followed the projected number of cases since Friday. The daily totals can fluctuate so I need a couple of days to really establish a trend. Several of the model seem to be overestimating the number of new cases which would be a good thing.

I ended up refitting three. For Austria and Australia, were high by almost 20%. It really looks like the virus has peaked in both places and the number of new cases has been dropping rather consistently for the last five days.

On the bad news side was France where the projections were way too low. To be honest, the day to day numbers seem to fluctuate a lot from France so I don’t know what to make of this just yet. The US numbers are still coming in as the model predicted so there is no evidence yet of a slow down in the number of new cases.

Still looks like a long way to go. I don’t know if watching the numbers is a good thing or a bad thing but I kind of like to be able to draw my own conclusions and not listen to the panic the media is trying to stir up. And I guess I’ll leave it there for today.